Capital market review
The start of 2023 was characterised by a spirit of optimism when energy prices fell as the result of a mild winter and this had a positive effect on inflation. Relatively quickly, however, the mood again changed to one of disappointment when it became apparent that the economy was in a difficult position and that inflation was a much more stubborn issue than previously thought. This led to a feeling of uncertainty, as a result of which trading volumes on the stock markets decreased significantly and volatility increased. This phase was also marked by runs on several American banks, followed by the collapse of Credit Suisse, spark-ing concerns of a new financial crisis. Subsequently, significant market corrections occurred but share prices were able to recover again once Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS. Throughout the spring, the central banks progressively increased their interest rates in ef-forts to combat stubborn levels of inflation. For example, the base rate of the Swiss National Bank increased to 1.5% in the spring and ultimately to 1.75% in the summer. These two factors, coupled with the resulting economic downturn, led overall to share prices falling continually from May onwards. This trend was accelerated with the Hamas attack on Israel, which resulted in a significant market correction. Once they had recovered from this short-term shock, the markets launched a comeback at the end of the year, spurred on by more positive economic news and the prospect of initial cuts to interest rates. This meant that the SPI Extra increased by 3.7% for the year as a whole, while the Construction & Materials sec-tor index, underpinned by the index heavyweights of Geberit, Holcim, and Sika, even rec-orded a rise of 29.4%.
The Arbonia share initially recorded a positive start to the year 2023 and reached its high point for the year in January (CHF 14.52 / +12.4%). However, this positive start was halted by the profit warning issued due to the lack of demand, particularly in the second half of the year.
Shortly before and at the time the net earnings for 2022 were published in February, the price of the Arbonia share fell further against comparative values and stabilised at around CHF 11.00 (–14.8%). After a brief recovery phase, the share price fell once again from mid-June onwards, as was the case for many other shares. This primarily happened when it be-came apparent that the (construction) economy, and the German construction industry in particular, was being affected by the economic downturn. On 20 July, Arbonia announced job cuts, as did many companies during this phase. In step with many other companies, Arbonia also suspended its annual targets as a result, meaning that the publications of the half-year results subsequently attracted barely any attention. Also in line with general mar-ket trends, the Arbonia share finally hit its low point for the year in October when it fell to CHF 7.20 (–44.3%).
By the end of the year, however, the shares were able to recover again, meaning the Arbon-ia share regained some of the ground it had lost in terms of performance. In the previous year (2022), Arbonia performed better than expected in relative terms, despite its poor ab-solute performance. This year, however, it remained below its targets and ended the year with a share price of CHF 9.63 (–25.5%). This is likely to be related above all to the high revenue share in Germany and the uncertain development of the construction industry in this important market, which has arisen due to political discussions. The shares of other building suppliers such as Meier Tobler (–9.9%), Forbo (–3.1%), and Zehnder (–4.1%) suffered fewer losses despite being exposed to similar effects.